2025 Commodity Performance: Top Gainers, Losers, and Market Insights

As we step into 2026, reflecting on the 2025 commodity performance reveals a year of dramatic shifts and unexpected surges. Silver led the pack with an astonishing 147% gain, outpacing even the most optimistic forecasts and highlighting the resilience of precious metals amid global uncertainties. This performance wasn’t isolated; commodities as a whole provided a hedge against volatility in equities and bonds, drawing renewed interest from investors seeking diversification.

In this comprehensive review, we’ll dive into the winners, losers, and underlying trends that defined the 2025 commodity market, offering actionable insights for forward-thinking portfolios.

Overview of 2025 Commodity Market Dynamics

The 2025 commodity performance was marked by a stark divergence across sectors, with metals shining brightly while energy and agriculture faced headwinds. According to Bloomberg’s year-end analysis, commodities outperformed many major asset classes through November, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) sectors showing:

Precious metals: +64%
Industrial metals: +13%
Livestock: +14%
Soft commodities: +7%
Energy: −3%
Grains: −2%

This resilience came amid a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, tariff implementations, inflation stickiness, and supply-chain restructuring, all of which amplified volatility across global markets.

Between March and August 2025, global commodity prices declined 2.6%, according to IMF estimates, as weakness in energy and agriculture offset strong metals performance. However, the year closed with selective recovery, reinforcing the idea that commodities were no longer a single trade, but a sector-by-sector market.

Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Macro Backdrop

Inflation remained a central driver of 2025 commodity performance.

Key Inflation Data (2025)

U.S. CPI (H2 average): 3.1%
Core CPI: 3.17%
Eurozone inflation: ~2.8%
Emerging markets average: 4.6%

Historically, commodities perform best when inflation exceeds 2%, with long-term data (1960–2024) showing:

Average commodity returns: ~15% in high-inflation regimes
Negative real returns during disinflationary periods

As inflation failed to fall decisively, investors increased allocations to hard assets, particularly precious metals.

Dollar Strength and Volatility Expansion

Another defining feature of 2025 was the strong U.S. dollar, which rose approximately 8% from late September into year-end.

Dollar Impact on Commodities

Dollar strength reduced foreign demand for dollar-priced commodities
Energy and agriculture were hit hardest
Precious metals outperformed despite the dollar, signaling unusually strong demand

Volatility also returned in force:

BCOM 30-day volatility: exceeded 20% after April tariffs
Copper intraday swings: regularly above 3%
Silver weekly ranges: expanded to 12–15%

This marked a clear departure from the low-volatility commodity regime of 2021–2023.

Top Performing Commodities in 2025: Metals Take the Lead

When examining the top performing commodities in 2025, metals overwhelmingly dominated returns, driven by safe-haven demand, supply constraints, and energy-transition demand.

Silver: The Best Performing Commodity of 2025

Silver surged 147% year-over-year, briefly trading above $80 per ounce.

Key Silver Demand Drivers

Investor purchases: ~134 million ounces (+95% YoY)
Industrial demand share: ~56%
Solar panel usage: +18% YoY
ETF inflows: highest since 2011

Silver benefited from its dual identity:

Monetary metal (inflation hedge)
Industrial input (solar, EVs, electronics)

Gold: Central Bank Demand and Record Prices

Gold rose approximately 65% in 2025, reaching record highs above $4,300–$4,500 per ounce.

Gold Demand Breakdown

Central bank purchases: ~7.5 million ounces
Investor demand: +13.5%
ETF net inflows: resumed after two years of outflows
Jewelry demand: flat to slightly negative

Gold’s performance reinforced its role as a crisis hedge without crisis, driven purely by portfolio allocation shifts.

Industrial and Energy-Transition Metals

Copper

Annual gain: ~40%
Global supply deficit: ~500,000 tonnes
EV-related demand growth: +22%
Grid & infrastructure demand: +15%

Platinum & Palladium

Platinum: +125%
Palladium: +97%
Tight inventories
Mine disruptions in South Africa and Russia

Battery & Specialty Metals

Cobalt: +120%
Sulfur: +116%
Driven by:
- Battery manufacturing
- Fertilizer shortages
- Energy transition bottlenecks

Top Performing Commodities Table

Commodity	2025 Performance	Key Structural Driver
Silver	+147%	Investor + solar demand
Platinum	+125%	Supply shortages
Cobalt	+120%	Battery demand
Gold	+65%	Central bank buying
Copper	+40%	EV & infrastructure

Underperformers in 2025 Commodity Performance: Agriculture and Energy

Despite strong metals performance, several sectors lagged badly.

Agriculture: Oversupply and Demand Destruction

Cocoa

Price decline: −43% to −48%
Brazilian output: +18%
West Africa demand: −12%
Year-end price: ~$6,200/tonne

Grains

Corn: −15%
Wheat: −18%
Soybeans: −11%

Drivers included:

Favorable weather
Rebuilt inventories
Tariff-related trade disruptions

Energy: One of the Weakest Years Since 2020

Brent crude average: ~$74/barrel
WTI annual decline: ~15%
Natural gas (TTF): −16.6%

Energy Market Pressures

Global oil supply growth exceeded demand by ~1.2 mb/d
Renewable penetration reduced marginal demand growth
Strategic reserves remained elevated

Tariffs, Trade Policy, and Supply Chain Shocks

Tariffs introduced in April 2025 reshaped commodity flows.

Immediate Effects

Stockpiling of copper, aluminum, nickel
Price dislocations between CME and LME
Increased freight and insurance costs

Longer-Term Effects

Fragmentation of supply chains
Increased regional pricing premiums
Reduced liquidity in some futures contracts

Structural Forces Shaping Commodity Markets Beyond 2025

Energy Transition

Global clean-energy investment exceeded $2.2 trillion
Copper demand projected to double by 2035
Silver demand from solar expected to rise ~20% annually

Geopolitics

Rare earth export controls lifted prices 30%+
Strategic stockpiling by China, India, and Middle East nations

Supply Constraints

Mining CAPEX still below 2012–2014 peaks
Long lead times (7–10 years) for new metal projects

Key Takeaways from 2025 Commodity Performance

Commodities were not a uniform trade
Metals dramatically outperformed energy and agriculture
Inflation and supply tightness mattered more than growth
Volatility rewarded active and selective positioning

What 2025 Tells Us About 2026

The 2025 commodity performance was a reminder that real assets thrive on imbalance between supply and demand, policy and markets, inflation and growth.

For investors heading into 2026: