As we step into 2026, reflecting on the 2025 commodity performance reveals a year of dramatic shifts and unexpected surges. Silver led the pack with an astonishing 147% gain, outpacing even the most optimistic forecasts and highlighting the resilience of precious metals amid global uncertainties. This performance wasn’t isolated; commodities as a whole provided a hedge against volatility in equities and bonds, drawing renewed interest from investors seeking diversification.
In this comprehensive review, we’ll dive into the winners, losers, and underlying trends that defined the 2025 commodity market, offering actionable insights for forward-thinking portfolios.
Overview of 2025 Commodity Market Dynamics
The 2025 commodity performance was marked by a stark divergence across sectors, with metals shining brightly while energy and agriculture faced headwinds. According to Bloomberg’s year-end analysis, commodities outperformed many major asset classes through November, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) sectors showing:
- Precious metals: +64%
- Industrial metals: +13%
- Livestock: +14%
- Soft commodities: +7%
- Energy: −3%
- Grains: −2%
This resilience came amid a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, tariff implementations, inflation stickiness, and supply-chain restructuring, all of which amplified volatility across global markets.
Between March and August 2025, global commodity prices declined 2.6%, according to IMF estimates, as weakness in energy and agriculture offset strong metals performance. However, the year closed with selective recovery, reinforcing the idea that commodities were no longer a single trade, but a sector-by-sector market.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Macro Backdrop
Inflation remained a central driver of 2025 commodity performance.
Key Inflation Data (2025)
- U.S. CPI (H2 average): 3.1%
- Core CPI: 3.17%
- Eurozone inflation: ~2.8%
- Emerging markets average: 4.6%
Historically, commodities perform best when inflation exceeds 2%, with long-term data (1960–2024) showing:
- Average commodity returns: ~15% in high-inflation regimes
- Negative real returns during disinflationary periods
As inflation failed to fall decisively, investors increased allocations to hard assets, particularly precious metals.
Dollar Strength and Volatility Expansion
Another defining feature of 2025 was the strong U.S. dollar, which rose approximately 8% from late September into year-end.
Dollar Impact on Commodities
- Dollar strength reduced foreign demand for dollar-priced commodities
- Energy and agriculture were hit hardest
- Precious metals outperformed despite the dollar, signaling unusually strong demand
Volatility also returned in force:
- BCOM 30-day volatility: exceeded 20% after April tariffs
- Copper intraday swings: regularly above 3%
- Silver weekly ranges: expanded to 12–15%
This marked a clear departure from the low-volatility commodity regime of 2021–2023.
Top Performing Commodities in 2025: Metals Take the Lead
When examining the top performing commodities in 2025, metals overwhelmingly dominated returns, driven by safe-haven demand, supply constraints, and energy-transition demand.
Silver: The Best Performing Commodity of 2025
Silver surged 147% year-over-year, briefly trading above $80 per ounce.
Key Silver Demand Drivers
- Investor purchases: ~134 million ounces (+95% YoY)
- Industrial demand share: ~56%
- Solar panel usage: +18% YoY
- ETF inflows: highest since 2011
Silver benefited from its dual identity:
- Monetary metal (inflation hedge)
- Industrial input (solar, EVs, electronics)
Gold: Central Bank Demand and Record Prices
Gold rose approximately 65% in 2025, reaching record highs above $4,300–$4,500 per ounce.
Gold Demand Breakdown
- Central bank purchases: ~7.5 million ounces
- Investor demand: +13.5%
- ETF net inflows: resumed after two years of outflows
- Jewelry demand: flat to slightly negative
Gold’s performance reinforced its role as a crisis hedge without crisis, driven purely by portfolio allocation shifts.
Industrial and Energy-Transition Metals
Copper
- Annual gain: ~40%
- Global supply deficit: ~500,000 tonnes
- EV-related demand growth: +22%
- Grid & infrastructure demand: +15%
Platinum & Palladium
- Platinum: +125%
- Palladium: +97%
- Tight inventories
- Mine disruptions in South Africa and Russia
Battery & Specialty Metals
- Cobalt: +120%
- Sulfur: +116%
- Driven by:
- Battery manufacturing
- Fertilizer shortages
- Energy transition bottlenecks
Top Performing Commodities Table
| Commodity | 2025 Performance | Key Structural Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Silver | +147% | Investor + solar demand |
| Platinum | +125% | Supply shortages |
| Cobalt | +120% | Battery demand |
| Gold | +65% | Central bank buying |
| Copper | +40% | EV & infrastructure |
Underperformers in 2025 Commodity Performance: Agriculture and Energy
Despite strong metals performance, several sectors lagged badly.
Agriculture: Oversupply and Demand Destruction
Cocoa
- Price decline: −43% to −48%
- Brazilian output: +18%
- West Africa demand: −12%
- Year-end price: ~$6,200/tonne
Grains
- Corn: −15%
- Wheat: −18%
- Soybeans: −11%
Drivers included:
- Favorable weather
- Rebuilt inventories
- Tariff-related trade disruptions
Energy: One of the Weakest Years Since 2020
- Brent crude average: ~$74/barrel
- WTI annual decline: ~15%
- Natural gas (TTF): −16.6%
Energy Market Pressures
- Global oil supply growth exceeded demand by ~1.2 mb/d
- Renewable penetration reduced marginal demand growth
- Strategic reserves remained elevated
Tariffs, Trade Policy, and Supply Chain Shocks
Tariffs introduced in April 2025 reshaped commodity flows.
Immediate Effects
- Stockpiling of copper, aluminum, nickel
- Price dislocations between CME and LME
- Increased freight and insurance costs
Longer-Term Effects
- Fragmentation of supply chains
- Increased regional pricing premiums
- Reduced liquidity in some futures contracts
Structural Forces Shaping Commodity Markets Beyond 2025
Energy Transition
- Global clean-energy investment exceeded $2.2 trillion
- Copper demand projected to double by 2035
- Silver demand from solar expected to rise ~20% annually
Geopolitics
- Rare earth export controls lifted prices 30%+
- Strategic stockpiling by China, India, and Middle East nations
Supply Constraints
- Mining CAPEX still below 2012–2014 peaks
- Long lead times (7–10 years) for new metal projects
Key Takeaways from 2025 Commodity Performance
- Commodities were not a uniform trade
- Metals dramatically outperformed energy and agriculture
- Inflation and supply tightness mattered more than growth
- Volatility rewarded active and selective positioning
What 2025 Tells Us About 2026
The 2025 commodity performance was a reminder that real assets thrive on imbalance between supply and demand, policy and markets, inflation and growth.
For investors heading into 2026:
- Precious metals remain core hedges
- Industrial metals benefit from structural demand
- Energy and agriculture require tactical timing
2025 was not a speculative bubble – it was a fundamental repricing.
And those structural forces are far from finished.
Reference List
🔗 Reuters – Precious metals 2025 rally (gold +64%, silver +147%)
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/precious-metals-kick-off-new-year-higher-after-robust-2025-rally-2026-01-02/ Reuters
🔗 Barron’s – Silver +140%+, gold +64% in 2025
https://www.barrons.com/articles/markets-silver-korea-stocks-gold-oil-5ebb5c3d Barron’s
🔗 Reuters – Silver tops $75, metals surge late 2025
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/silver-tops-75-gold-platinum-surge-records-2025-12-26/ Reuters
Energy & Oil Price Performance
🔗 Reuters – Oil posts biggest annual drop since 2020
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-brent-heads-longest-stretch-annual-losses-2025-2025-12-31/ Reuters
🔗 Reuters – Oil edges higher after 2025 losses
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-higher-following-biggest-annual-loss-since-2020-2026-01-02/ Reuters
🔗 The Guardian – Brent and WTI decline ~20% in 2025
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/01/oil-prices-record-steepest-annual-fall-covid-pandemic The Guardian
Commodity Market Fundamentals & Forecasts
World Bank Reports & Outlook
🔗 World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook – October 2025 (projection to 2026)
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/10/28/commodity-markets-outlook-october-2025-press-release World Bank
🔗 World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook – April 2025 (falling commodity price view)
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/04/29/commodity-markets-outlook-april-2025-press-release World Bank
🔗 World Bank Commodity Markets Data & Reports page
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets World Bank
🔗 World Bank Pink Sheet – Commodity prices data (metals up, energy down)
https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/commodity-prices-ease-in-october-pink-sheet World Bank Blogs
🔗 World Bank Outlook (eight charts) – Forecasts to 2026
https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developmenttalk/the-commodity-markets-outlook-in-eight-charts2 World Bank Blogs
Agriculture & Cocoa Price Trends
Cocoa and agricultural indices are covered broadly by World Bank commodity blog data – you can cite this as context for agricultural weakness:
🔗 World Bank commodity prices & food/agriculture trends
https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/commodity-prices-broadly-stable-in-september-pink-sheet World Bank Blogs
(This link shows agricultural price indexes alongside metal and energy movements.)
Optional – Additional Data Sources (for deeper context)
These aren’t official price reports but offer supplemental insight if you want to interpret market microstructure, volatility, or market narratives:
🔗 Reuters / Goldman Sachs oil forecast heading into 2026
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-expects-oil-prices-decline-through-2026-2025-04-14/ Reuters
